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Arming Armed Forces: India's Choice Not Trump's

Arming Armed Forces: India's Choice Not Trump's

  • 15.03.2025 18:47
  • rediff.com
  • Keywords: danger, success

India prioritizes equipping its armed forces operationally rather than commercially, as highlighted by Lt. Gen. Prakash Katoch. He advocates for indigenous capabilities like the Wheeled Armoured Platform (WhAP) over foreign options like the Stryker, emphasizing self-reliance to counter China's expanding military influence.

Tesla Reports

Estimated market influence

Context

Analysis of India's Defense Strategy and Market Implications

Key Facts and Data Points

Tariff Reductions

  • Electric Vehicles (EVs): India reduced EV import duties from 110% to 15%, aligning with Trump's demand for zero tariffs.
  • Tesla Challenges: Tesla shares are struggling, with satellite images showing vast unsold car inventories.

Defense Cooperation Between India and the US

  • US-India Joint Leaders' Statement (February 2023):
    • Launched COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology).
    • Launched ASIA (Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance).
    • Signed a 10-year Framework for the US-India Major Defence Partnership by 2025.
    • Integrated US-origin defense items into India's inventory, including AH-64 Apache helicopters and MQ-9B drones.
    • Expanded defense sales and co-production of Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs) in India.

Military Equipment Delays

  • F-414 Aero Engines: Technology transfer delayed despite promises of 100% ToT, impacting the Tejas program.
  • AH-64 Apache Deliveries: Delays reported, raising questions about operational readiness.
  • Stryker ICVs: Criticized as outdated ("Kevlar Coffin") and unsuitable for high-altitude regions like Ladakh.

Indigenous Production and Self-Reliance

  • WhAP (Wheeled Armoured Platform):
    • A superior indigenous option compared to Stryker, designed for APC, ICV, Light Tank, etc.
    • One batch inducted into the Army; exports underway to Morocco.
    • Expansion of production could boost India's Aatmanirbharta (self-reliance) goals.

Fighter Jet Procurement Dilemma

  • IAF Combat Capabilities: Currently at ~30 squadrons vs authorized 42, seeking new multirole fighters.
  • Options Under Consideration:
    • F-35: Costly ($80 million per unit) and underperforming (6 accidents reported).
    • Su-57: Cheaper ($35 million) with technology transfer, but may annoy Trump due to Russia ties.
    • Rafale: Already in use, but limited effectiveness against 5th-gen threats.

China's Military Advancements

  • PLAAF (People's Liberation Army Air Force):
    • Possesses two 5th-generation fighters and demonstrated a 6th-gen jet at Zhuhai air show.
    • Analysts predict China will have 1,000+ 5th-gen fighters by the time India inducts its multirole fighter.

Indian Navy's Drone Needs

  • Jet-Powered Drones: Required to cover the vast Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
  • Current Procurement: MQ9 drones from the US fall short, with recent incidents like a drone crash over Yemen.

Market and Industry Implications

Strategic Shifts in Defense Spending

  • US Influence vs Operational Needs: India's focus on operational requirements over commercial deals aligns with long-term strategic goals against China.
  • Technology Partnerships: Delays in technology transfers (e.g., F-414 engines) highlight challenges in balancing partnerships with self-reliance.

Competitive Dynamics

  • Global Defense Markets: India's choices between US, Russian, and French equipment impact global defense manufacturers.
  • Indigenous Manufacturing: Expanding WhAP production could reduce reliance on foreign technology and boost domestic industries.

Long-Term Effects

  • China's Military Superiority: India must accelerate modernization to counter China's growing 5th-gen fighter fleet.
  • Geopolitical Risks: Delays in equipment deliveries and decisions (e.g., Stryker vs WhAP) could impact operational readiness and deterrence capabilities.

Regulatory and Policy Considerations

  • Tariff Policies: Reductions on EVs align with global trends but may not fully address domestic manufacturing challenges.
  • Defense Procurement Rules: Streamlining processes and prioritizing indigenous production could enhance India's strategic autonomy.

Conclusion

India's defense strategy is at a critical juncture, balancing US partnerships, operational needs, and self-reliance goals. While short-term decisions may align with geopolitical imperatives (e.g., Trump's influence), long-term implications must focus on building indigenous capabilities to counter China's military advancements. The success of initiatives like WhAP and the IAF's fighter jet procurement will shape India's defense industry and regional security dynamics.