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Wall Street's No. 2 bull holds his ground. The logic? Trump's popularity could get worse.

Wall Street's No. 2 bull holds his ground. The logic? Trump's popularity could get worse.

  • 18.03.2025 12:40
  • morningstar.com
  • Keywords: Wall Street, Market Performance, Stock Market, Investment Strategy

Wall Street strategists remain optimistic about the S&P 500, with targets set at 7,100 and 7,000 for year-end. Despite market volatility, they believe Trump's waning approval ratings could prompt policy shifts, potentially stabilizing the stock market.

Nvidia ServicesNvidia ProductsDBsentiment_satisfied

Estimated market influence

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

Deutsche Bank's strategist Binky Chadha is mentioned as having a positive outlook for the S&P 500, with a target of 7,000.

Oppenheimer

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: N/A

John Stoltzfus from Oppenheimer has a bullish stance on the market, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,100 by year-end.

Context

Analysis and Summary: Market Insights and Implications

Overview

The article discusses current market conditions and expert opinions on future trends, focusing on trade policy uncertainty, consumer confidence, and President Trump's approval ratings.

Key Business Insights and Market Implications

1. Market Sentiment and Predictions

  • Bullish Outlook:
    • Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7,100 by year-end.
    • Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha forecasts 7,000, maintaining his stance despite market volatility.

2. Trade Policy and Market Volatility

  • Uncertainty Lingers:
    • Trade policy issues remain unresolved, with a potential market downturn to 5,250 if positioning worsens.
    • The April 2 tariff plan announcement is seen as a pivotal point for market direction.

3. Consumer Confidence vs. Presidential Approval

  • Consumer Confidence Drop:
    • Consumer confidence has significantly declined but not as sharply as expected.
  • Trump's Approval Rating:
    • Despite dropping, Trump's approval remains relatively stable compared to consumer sentiment trends.

4. Potential Market Recovery Scenarios

  • If Trump's approval rating declines, it could prompt policy changes, potentially leading to a market rebound.

5. Asset Performance (YTD as of March 18, 2025)

| Asset | YTD Return (%) | |----------------------|----------------| | S&P 500 | -7.19% | | Nasdaq Composite | -11.08% | | 10-year Treasury | Steady | | Gold | +14.98% | | Oil | -4.48% |

6. Key Events and Developments

  • Nvidia's GTC Conference: Jensen Huang to speak.
  • Alphabet Acquisition: Purchase of cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion.
  • BYD Innovation: Launches a 5-minute battery charging system in Hong Kong.
  • Tesla Update: RBC cuts price target due to expected FSD service price reduction.

7. Market Dynamics

  • U.S. stock futures are under pressure ahead of the Fed decision, while gold and oil show mixed trends.

Strategic Considerations

  • Trade Policy Uncertainty: A key driver of market volatility, with potential long-term impacts on business cycles.
  • Political Shifts: Changes in Trump's approval could influence policy decisions, affecting investor sentiment.
  • Consumer Behavior: While confidence is down, its impact on spending remains uncertain.

Competitive Dynamics

  • Companies like Nvidia and Alphabet are focusing on innovation and strategic acquisitions to maintain competitive advantage.
  • Tesla's price adjustments indicate ongoing market shifts in the automotive sector.

Long-Term Effects and Regulatory Impacts

  • The article highlights potential regulatory changes if political dynamics shift, which could alter trade policies and market conditions.

This analysis underscores the delicate balance between economic indicators, political sentiment, and corporate strategies shaping current market trends.