Analysis of Ghost Reporters and Pro-Russian Propaganda in West Africa

Key Findings and Business Insights

• Identity Theft for Propaganda:

  • A coordinated effort to create fake personas, such as "Gregoire Cyrille Dongobada," using stolen identities (e.g., Jean Claude Sendeoli) to spread anti-France sentiment across Francophone Africa.
  • Over 15 ghostwriters and 200 articles have been identified since early 2021, with no credible evidence of their existence beyond social media profiles.

• Russian Influence Campaign:

  • Metadata analysis revealed Cyrillic script in document files and Russian phone numbers linked to the campaign.
  • The campaign appears linked to Russia’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) and Wagner Group, known for disinformation efforts globally.

• Declining French Influence:

  • France’s traditional dominance in Francophone Africa is waning, with growing resentment among local populations due to perceived economic and political control.
  • Anti-France sentiment aligns with Russian narratives, positioning Russia as an alternative partner in regions like Mali, Burkina Faso, and CAR.

• Economic Shifts:

  • Russia is leveraging its presence in Africa through pragmatic cooperation, offering arms, fertilizers, and machinery under more favorable terms than France.
  • Wagner Group’s rebranding into the Russian Ministry of Defence signals long-term strategic integration into African markets.

• Media Landscape Impact:

  • Financial struggles of media outlets in Francophone Africa have led to reliance on paid-for content, creating opportunities for disinformation campaigns.
  • Ghostwriters are used to propagate pro-Russian narratives while masking their origins, exploiting vulnerabilities in local journalism ecosystems.

Market Implications

• Shift in Geopolitical Alliances:

  • The rise of Russian influence could disrupt traditional French economic and security ties, potentially altering trade agreements and investment flows.
  • African nations may increasingly balance relationships with both France and Russia, impacting foreign policy and market dynamics.

• Economic Opportunities for Russia:

  • Russia’s focus on infrastructure and resource investments in Africa (e.g., fertilizers, arms) could open new markets and strengthen its economic foothold in the region.

• Threat to French Interests:

  • France faces competition from Russia in its former colonies, with implications for its security operations (e.g., counterterrorism efforts) and cultural influence.

• Media Integrity Challenges:

  • The use of ghostwriters highlights vulnerabilities in media verification processes, potentially eroding trust in local news outlets.
  • This could drive demand for fact-checking services and independent journalism to combat disinformation.

Competitive Dynamics

• Russia’s Strategic Play:

  • Russia is targeting Francophone Africa as a key battleground to counter French influence, using disinformation and economic partnerships to gain traction.

• France’s Defensive Posture:

  • France is likely to double down on its historical ties, emphasizing security and economic partnerships to retain influence.

• Local Media Caught in Crossfire:

  • African media outlets are increasingly caught between foreign influence campaigns and domestic pressures to maintain credibility.

Long-Term Effects

• Potential for Political Instability:

  • The manipulation of anti-France sentiment could exacerbate existing political tensions, potentially leading to regime changes or increased military干预.

• Economic Rebalancing:

  • Russia’s growing economic presence may shift trade patterns and investment priorities in favor of Russian goods and services.

• Regulatory Challenges:

  • African nations may need to strengthen regulations around foreign influence and media integrity, impacting the operating environment for both domestic and international businesses.

Conclusion

The ghostwriter campaign underscores a broader strategic play by Russia to expand its influence in Francophone Africa at France’s expense. While the immediate impact is on public perception and media credibility, the long-term implications could reshape geopolitical alliances, economic partnerships, and market dynamics across West and Central Africa. Businesses operating in these regions must remain vigilant to shifting political landscapes and adapt to new competitive realities.