open_in_newOriginal article
Stock Index Futures Soar on Hope of Targeted U.S. Tariffs

Stock Index Futures Soar on Hope of Targeted U.S. Tariffs

  • 24.03.2025 10:21
  • theglobeandmail.com
  • Keywords: Stock Index Futures, U.S. Tariffs

Stock index futures rose as investors hoped U.S. tariffs would be less severe. Bloomberg reported the next round of tariffs may target specific sectors rather than being broad. Markets are also watching for economic data to assess the economy's strength.

SMCI ProductsSMCIsentiment_satisfiedTSLAsentiment_satisfiedAAPLsentiment_satisfiedBA/PAsentiment_satisfiedMUsentiment_dissatisfiedFDXsentiment_dissatisfiedDLTRsentiment_neutralLULUsentiment_neutralCHWYsentiment_neutralGMEsentiment_neutralMS/PLsentiment_neutralXIACYsentiment_satisfiedSURYYsentiment_satisfied

Estimated market influence

Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $45, leading to an increase of over +7%.

Tesla

Tesla

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Neutral

Rose more than +5% in the Nasdaq 100 after Tesla's performance.

Apple

Apple

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

Advanced nearly +2% on Wall Street.

Boeing

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: —

Rose over +3% after securing a contract to design and build the U.S.'s next-generation stealth fighter jet.

Micron Technology

Micron Technology

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

Slumped more than -8% after offering a weak FQ3 adjusted gross margin forecast.

FedEx

FedEx

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

Slid over -6% after cutting its full-year guidance.

Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree

Neutralsentiment_neutral
Analyst rating: Buy

Scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

KB Home

Neutralsentiment_neutral
Analyst rating: N/A

Scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

Lululemon Athletica

Lululemon Athletica

Neutralsentiment_neutral
Analyst rating: Buy

Scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

Chewy

Chewy

Neutralsentiment_neutral
Analyst rating: Buy

Scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

GameStop

GameStop

Neutralsentiment_neutral
Analyst rating: Strong sell

Scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

Bayer AG

Negativesentiment_dissatisfied
Analyst rating: N/A

Slumped over -7% after a U.S. jury ordered the company to pay $2.1 billion due to allegations about Roundup weed killer causing cancer.

Ant Group

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: N/A

Utilized Chinese-made semiconductors to develop AI model training techniques, potentially reducing costs by 20%.

Morgan Stanley

Neutralsentiment_neutral
Analyst rating: —

Boosted China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast.

Xiaomi

Xiaomi

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

Climbed over +4% in Hong Kong after raising car deliveries guidance.

Sumitomo Realty & Development

Sumitomo Realty & Development

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: —

Jumped over +10% after Bloomberg reported Elliott Investment Management built a sizeable stake.

Context

Analysis of Stock Index Futures Surge and Market Implications

Overview

  • Stock Index Futures:
    • June S&P 500 E-Mini futures are up +0.97%.
    • June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up +1.14%.

Market Trends

  • Investor Sentiment:

    • Optimism driven by reports that U.S. President Trump’s next round of tariffs (April 2) will be more targeted, contrary to earlier broad measures.
    • Bloomberg reported no additional sector-specific tariffs are planned for now.

  • Wall Street Performance:

    • Friday’s trading session saw major equity averages close in the green.
      • Gainers: Super Micro Computer (+7%), Tesla (+5%), Apple (+2%), Boeing (+3%).
      • Losers: Micron Technology (-8%), FedEx (-6%).

  • Bond Market:

    • 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield at 4.281%, up +0.68%.

Business Impact

  • Federal Reserve Outlook:

    • Fed officials expect rates to remain steady or cut if inflation eases.
    • U.S. rate futures indicate an 85.1% chance of no rate change and a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the May meeting.

  • Economic Data Focus:

    • Key data releases this week include:
      • Core PCE inflation gauge (February reading).
      • GDP, Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, and others.

Competitive Dynamics

  • Global Markets:

    • Euro Stoxx 50 Index up +0.22% as investors hope for less aggressive U.S. tariffs.
    • Asian markets mixed:
      • China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed +0.15%.
      • Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed -0.18%.

  • Corporate News:

    • Bayer AG slumped -7% after a U.S. jury ordered $2.1 billion in damages over Roundup weed killer.
    • Xiaomi climbed +4% on EV delivery guidance.

Long-Term Effects and Regulatory Impacts

  • Tariff Policy Uncertainty:

    • Investors remain cautious ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement.
    • U.S.-China trade dynamics could impact global markets.

  • Central Bank Policies:

    • Fed officials’ comments suggest a data-dependent approach to rate hikes.
    • BOJ Governor noted potential adjustments to monetary easing based on inflation trends.

Key Data Points

  • PMI Readings:

    • U.S. March Manufacturing PMI expected at 51.9 (vs. last month’s 52.7).
    • Eurozone Composite PMI reported at 50.4 (vs. expectations of 50.8).

  • Inflation and GDP:

    • Core PCE inflation likely to remain elevated.
    • U.S. GDP third estimate and China’s stimulus-driven growth forecast (+4.5% by Morgan Stanley).

Strategic Considerations

  • Investor Focus:
    • Sentiment tied to macroeconomic data and central bank commentary.
    • Corporate earnings (e.g., Dollar Tree, KB Home) and PMI releases will influence market direction.

This analysis highlights the interplay of geopolitical trade policies, economic data, and corporate performance shaping global markets.