Stock Index Futures Soar on Tariff Optimism, U.S. PCE Inflation Data Awaited

Stock Index Futures Soar on Tariff Optimism, U.S. PCE Inflation Data Awaited

  • 24.03.2025 12:26
  • theglobeandmail.com
  • Keywords: dangerous, success

Stock index futures rose on optimism over potential less severe U.S. tariffs, with investors awaiting key inflation data. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained, while Asian markets showed mixed performance amid tariff concerns.

SMCI ServicesSMCIsentiment_satisfiedTSLAsentiment_satisfied

Estimated market influence

Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Buy

JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $45.

Tesla

Tesla

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Neutral

Rising more than +5%...

Context

Analysis: Stock Index Futures Soar on Tariff Optimism, U.S. PCE Inflation Data Awaited

Key Market Movements

  • S&P 500 E-Mini futures: Up +0.97%
  • Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures: Up +1.14%

Tariff Optimism

  • Investors hopeful that upcoming U.S. tariffs (April 2nd) will be more targeted, contrary to earlier fears of broad sector-specific measures.
  • Bloomberg report suggests Trump administration may exempt certain countries or sectors.

Economic Data Focus

  • U.S. PCE Inflation Data: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge due this week, expected to show stubbornly elevated prices.
  • GDP (third estimate): Release of U.S. GDP data for further insights into economic performance.
  • Consumer Confidence Index & PMI Data: Key indicators to monitor for manufacturing and services sector activity.

Federal Reserve Sentiment

  • Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed): Expect rates to ease if inflation continues to decline over next 12-18 months.
  • John Williams (New York Fed): Current monetary policy stance is appropriate given strong labor market and inflation above target.
  • Rate Futures: Market pricing in an 85.1% chance of no rate hike in May, with a 14.9% chance of a 25bp cut.

Bond Markets

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield: At 4.281%, up +0.68%.

International Markets

Eurozone

  • Composite PMI (preliminary): 50.4 (vs expectations of 50.8).
  • Manufacturing PMI (preliminary): 48.7 (vs expectations of 48.3).
  • Services PMI (preliminary): 50.4 (vs expectations of 51.2).

Japan

  • Nikkei 225: Down -0.18%.
  • March au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary): 48.3 (vs expectations of 49.2).

China

  • Shanghai Composite Index: Up +0.15%.

Corporate News & Earnings

Gainers

  • Super Micro Computer (SCH): +7% after JPMorgan upgrade to Neutral with $45 price target.
  • Tesla (TSLA): +5% as top gainer in Nasdaq 100.
  • Boeing (BA): +3% after securing a contract for the U.S.’s next-generation stealth fighter jet.

Losers

  • Micron Technology (MU): -8% after weak Q3 gross margin forecast.
  • FedEx (FDX): -6% following reduced full-year guidance.

Pre-Market Movers

  • Azek (AZEK): +18% on $8.75B acquisition by James Hardie Industries.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR): +5% after lowering preferred stock offering price.
  • Dutch Bros (DBRD): +3% following Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight with $82 target.
  • Pinterest (PINS): +3% after Guggenheim upgrade to Buy with $40 target.
  • Super Micro Computer (SCH): -2% on Goldman Sachs downgrade to Sell.

Upcoming Earnings

  • Monday, March 24th: KB Home (KBH), Oklo (OKLO), Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Caledonia Mining (CMCL), SKYX Platforms (SKYX), Intellinetics (INLX), Nexgel (NXGL), Wag! (PET).