Stock Index Futures Soar on Tariff Optimism, U.S. PCE Inflation Data Awaited

Stock Index Futures Soar on Tariff Optimism, U.S. PCE Inflation Data Awaited

  • 24.03.2025 16:16
  • theglobeandmail.com
  • Keywords: Stock Index Futures, Tariff Optimism

Stock index futures rose as investors hoped U.S. tariffs would be less severe than feared. Markets await key economic data, including PCE inflation, to gauge the economy's strength.

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Estimated market influence

Super Micro Computer

Super Micro Computer

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Neutral

JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $45, leading to an increase in stock price.

Tesla

Tesla

Positivesentiment_satisfied
Analyst rating: Neutral

Risen more than +5% due to positive market sentiment and potential tariff optimism.

Context

Analysis of Stock Index Futures and Market Implications

Market Performance

  • June S&P 500 E-Mini futures () are up +0.97%.
  • June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures () are up +1.14%.
  • Sentiment improved due to reports that U.S. tariffs would be more targeted, contrary to earlier expectations.

Tariff Optimism

  • Investors expect the next round of U.S. tariffs (due April 2nd) to be less severe than previously anticipated.
  • Bloomberg reported that certain countries or blocs may receive exemptions, and no additional sector-specific tariffs are planned for now.

Economic Data Focus

  • Key economic data releases this week include:
    • February U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge).
    • GDP (third estimate), Consumer Confidence Index, S&P/CS HPI Composite, and others.
  • Analysts expect PCE to show stubbornly elevated inflation.

Federal Reserve Comments

  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expects rates to remain steady or decrease if inflation eases.
  • New York Fed President John Williams supports the current monetary policy stance.
  • U.S. rate futures indicate an 85.1% chance of no rate change and a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the May meeting.

Global Markets

  • Euro Stoxx 50 Index: Up +0.22%, driven by optimism over targeted tariffs.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225: Down -0.18%, with investors cautious ahead of U.S. tariffs.
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: Up +0.15%, supported by reports on metal reserves and Ant Group’s AI developments.

Corporate News

  • Super Micro Computer (): Downgraded to Sell by Goldman Sachs, fell -2% in pre-market.
  • Boeing (): Up +3.4% after securing a contract for the U.S.’s next-generation stealth fighter jet.
  • Micron Technology (): Slumped -8.6% due to weak Q3 gross margin forecast.

Pre-Market Movers

  • Azek (): Soared +18% after James Hardie Industries agreed to acquire it for $8.75 billion.
  • MicroStrategy (): Climbed +5.4% after lowering preferred stock offering price.
  • Dutch Bros (): Gained +3.2% with Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight.

Global PMI Data

  • U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary): Expected at 51.9 vs. last month’s 52.7.
  • Eurozone Composite PMI: Reported at 50.4, weaker than expectations of 50.8.
  • Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI: Stood at 48.3, weaker than expectations of 49.2.

Investor Sentiment

  • Investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s inflation data and U.S. tariff announcements.
  • Market volatility is expected to persist due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

Strategic Considerations

  • Targeted tariffs may reduce market uncertainty, potentially stabilizing global trade dynamics.
  • Central banks’ focus on inflation and monetary policy adjustments will influence short-term market trends.
  • Corporate earnings and sector-specific developments (e.g., tech, manufacturing) will drive stock performance.