Analysis: Intel's New Strategy Under Lip-Bu Tan

Key Facts and Data Points:

• New Focus Areas: Intel's incoming CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, is expected to prioritize chip design in the short term while securing major customers for its foundry business.
• Potential Customers: NVIDIA is more likely than Broadcom to become an Intel foundry customer due to Jensen Huang's consideration of Intel's 18A process for gaming products, despite unresolved power consumption issues.
• Process Technology: Intel is advancing its 18A manufacturing process and developing a lower-power version (18AP) to appeal to chip companies.
• Packaging Innovations: Intel's EMIB technology aims to compete with TSMC's CoWoS-L platform for HPC customers like NVIDIA.
• Collaboration Progress: Intel and UMC collaboration is progressing smoothly, with production timelines potentially accelerating to the second half of 2026.

Market Implications:

• Foundry Business Growth: Securing major customers like NVIDIA or Broadcom would strengthen Intel's position in the foundry market, directly competing with TSMC.
• Process Technology Advancements: The development of 18A and 18AP process nodes positions Intel to offer more efficient alternatives for high-performance computing (HPC) and gaming applications.
• Packaging Competition: Intel's EMIB technology could enhance its appeal to HPC customers, potentially displacing TSMC's CoWoS-L platform.

Competitive Dynamics:

• TSMC vs. Intel: Intel aims to challenge TSMC in advanced packaging and process technology through innovations like EMIB and 18A/18AP.
• Strategic Partnerships: Collaboration with UMC could position Intel as a significant secondary supplier of high-voltage FinFET processes, potentially expanding into Apple's supply chain by next year.

Strategic Considerations:

• Customer Attraction: NVIDIA's potential adoption of Intel's 18A process for gaming products highlights the importance of addressing power consumption concerns to secure major clients.
• Long-Term Effects: Success in packaging and process technology could solidify Intel's position as a key player in the semiconductor foundry market, reducing TSMC's dominance.

Regulatory and Long-Term Impact:

• Market Expansion: If successful, Intel's foundry business could expand its share in HPC and gaming markets, potentially influencing broader semiconductor industry dynamics.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Collaboration with UMC could enhance Intel's supply chain resilience and diversify its manufacturing capabilities.

Upcoming Events:

• Direct Connect Event: Key updates on Intel's foundry progress are expected at the April 29 event, which could provide further insights into its strategic direction.

Conclusion:

Intel's new CEO is poised to steer the company toward a more design-centric and foundry-focused strategy, leveraging advanced process nodes and packaging innovations to compete with TSMC. Success in attracting major customers like NVIDIA and advancing collaborations with UMC will be critical for Intel's long-term growth and market impact.