Analysis of VinFast's Q1 2025 EV Deliveries and Market Implications

Overview

• VinFast delivered 36,330 electric vehicles (EVs) globally in Q1 2025, a 296% year-over-year increase.
• The surge was driven by strong growth in VF 5 and VF 6 models.

Key Deliveries

• VF 5 deliveries: Increased by 153% Y/Y.
• VF 6 deliveries: Increased by 453% Y/Y.
• VF 3 and VF 5 accounted for 67% of total EV deliveries.

E-Scooters and E-Bikes

• Delivered 44,904 e-scooters and e-bikes, up 473% Y/Y.

Financial Performance

• Q1 2025 financial results to be released on June 9, 2025.
• Stock performance: VinFast shares were trading 3.25% higher at $3.34 as of the latest check.
• Earnings per share (EPS): Loss of 54 cents, missing analyst estimates of a 23-cent loss.
• Revenues: $677.89 million, below the consensus estimate of $859.08 million.

Market and Competitive Dynamics

• Global EV market comparison:
  • Tesla: Delivered 323,800 Model 3/Y, down from 386,810 vehicles in Q1 2024.
  • XPeng: Delivered 94,008 Smart EVs, up 331% Y/Y.
  • Li Auto: Delivered 92,864 vehicles, up 15.5% Y/Y.
  • Nio: Delivered 42,094 vehicles, up 40.1% Y/Y.

Strategic Considerations

• VinFast aims to at least double global EV deliveries in fiscal 2025.
• The company is expanding its presence in the e-scooter and e-bike market, with a significant increase in deliveries.
• Despite missing analyst estimates, the strong delivery growth highlights the company's focus on scaling production.

Long-Term Effects

• VinFast's rapid expansion underscores its ambition to become a major player in the global EV market.
• The company's ability to maintain growth while navigating macroeconomic conditions will be critical for long-term success.

Regulatory and Market Implications

• The surge in deliveries may prompt regulatory scrutiny, particularly in markets where VinFast is expanding.
• Competitors like Tesla, XPeng, Li Auto, and Nio face increased competition as VinFast continues to scale its operations.