India, US Edge Closer To Landmark Trade Deal Soon : US Commerce Secretary Lutnick

India, US Edge Closer To Landmark Trade Deal Soon : US Commerce Secretary Lutnick

  • 03.06.2025 04:35
  • timesnownews.com
  • Keywords: India, US, India-US Trade, Bilateral Trade Agreement, Tariff, Trade Talks, Economic Alliance, Global Trade, Supply Chain, Clean Energy, Digital Trade, Pharmaceuticals

India and the US are close to finalizing a landmark trade deal, with both sides offering concessions on key sectors like textiles and electric vehicles to boost bilateral trade.

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Estimated market influence

India

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Analyst rating: Buy

India is pushing for the removal of a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on its exports.

US

US

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Analyst rating: Strong buy

The US is seeking tariff concessions on a broad array of goods, ranging from industrial and petrochemical products to automobiles—especially electric vehicles—as well as wine, dairy, apples, tree nuts, and genetically modified (GM) crops.

India-US Trade

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Both nations are aligning market access ambitions ahead of the US election cycle.

Bilateral Trade Agreement

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India and the US are targeting the first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) before September or October this year.

Tariff

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India’s regulatory stance on GM crop imports remains firm, though it has expressed openness to importing non-GM agricultural products such as alfalfa hay for cattle feed.

Trade Talks

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With trade talks accelerating between New Delhi and Washington, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signalled that a long-anticipated bilateral trade agreement could soon be finalised.

Economic Alliance

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He also acknowledged India's protectionist tariff structure but emphasised that President Trump's philosophy, while rooted in “America First,” is not about “America Only.”

Global Trade

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The trade partnership gains even more importance as both nations navigate an increasingly volatile global economic environment and seek to counterbalance China’s influence in critical supply chains.

Supply Chain

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Analyst rating: N/A

Both governments are keen on finalising a workable framework that could set the tone for broader cooperation in digital trade, pharmaceuticals, supply chain diversification, and clean energy.

Clean Energy

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Analyst rating: Buy

Both governments are keen on finalising a workable framework that could set the tone for broader cooperation in digital trade, pharmaceuticals, supply chain diversification, and clean energy.

Digital Trade

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Analyst rating: N/A

Both governments are keen on finalising a workable framework that could set the tone for broader cooperation in digital trade, pharmaceuticals, supply chain diversification, and clean energy.

Pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceuticals

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Analyst rating: Buy

Both governments are keen on finalising a workable framework that could set the tone for broader cooperation in digital trade, pharmaceuticals, supply chain diversification, and clean energy.

Context

Analysis of India-US Trade Deal Developments

Key Facts and Data Points:

  • Target Timeline for BTA (Bilateral Trade Agreement):

    • Phase one expected to be finalized by September or October 2025.
  • India's Key Export Sectors Seeking Tariff Removal:

    • Textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, plastics, shrimp, bananas, grapes, and chemicals.
  • US Sought Tariff Concessions:

    • Industrial products, petrochemicals, automobiles (especially electric vehicles), wine, dairy, apples, tree nuts, and genetically modified (GM) crops.
  • India's Regulatory Stance on GM Crops:

    • Firm opposition to GM crops but open to importing non-GM agricultural products like alfalfa hay for cattle feed.
  • India's Trade Statistics with the US:

    • India is the top trading partner for the US for the fourth consecutive year.
    • Bilateral trade reached $131.84 billion in the 2024–25 fiscal year.
    • 18% of India’s total exports go to the US, while 6% of its imports come from the US.
    • The US represents over 10% of India’s total merchandise trade.

Market and Business Insights:

  • Strategic Economic Alignment:

    • Both nations are aligning market access ambitions to strengthen their trade partnership, driven by mutual economic interests and strategic considerations.
  • Tariff Dynamics:

    • India’s push for removal of the 26% reciprocal tariff on its exports highlights its focus on gaining better market access in the US.
    • The US is reciprocating by seeking concessions on a range of products, including electric vehicles, which underscores its focus on high-value sectors.
  • Regulatory and Negotiation Challenges:

    • India’s firm stance on GM crops could pose challenges in finalizing the agreement, though discussions are ongoing.
    • The success of negotiations hinges on having results-oriented negotiators from both sides, as highlighted by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick.

Competitive Dynamics and Industry Implications:

  • Global Economic Volatility:

    • The partnership is seen as a counterbalance to China’s influence in global supply chains, particularly amid rising economic uncertainties.
  • Long-Term Effects:

    • A finalized BTA could pave the way for broader cooperation in digital trade, pharmaceuticals, supply chain diversification, and clean energy.
    • Phase-wise implementation is expected to mitigate challenges and ensure mutual concessions.

Strategic Considerations:

  • Political Factors:

    • The US election cycle could accelerate negotiations as both sides aim to secure advantageous terms.
    • President Trump’s "America First" philosophy, while protectionist, is balanced with a focus on strategic alliances with like-minded democracies.
  • Mutual Respect and Strategic Interests:

    • The agreement reflects a shift towards aligning market access with strategic economic interests, reinforcing the notion of a strategic economic alliance between the two democracies.

Conclusion:

The India-US trade deal, if finalized as anticipated, could significantly reshape global trade dynamics, particularly in key sectors like technology, pharmaceuticals, and clean energy. The agreement’s phase-wise implementation suggests a pragmatic approach to resolving complex trade issues while aligning long-term strategic interests.