Business Insights and Market Implications Summary

S&P 500 Performance

• The S&P 500 surged by 4.6% last week, its best week since January, driven by optimism over potential US-China tariff reductions and positive earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.
• Despite Tesla's net profit decline, the rally continued due to market sentiment around trade policy clarity.

Earnings Season Impact

• This week’s earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta (Wednesday), Apple, and Amazon (Thursday) are expected to significantly influence the index.
• The "Magnificent Seven" companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Netflix, and Tesla) have underperformed this year, with investors focusing on how Apple and Amazon plan to mitigate tariff impacts.

Macroeconomic Data Focus

• April US jobs report due on May 2nd expected to show slower job growth of 150,000, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%.
• These developments may impact US-focused ASX ETFs, including:
  • Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index AUD ETF
  • iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF
  • Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF

Ontario Scams in April 2025

Key Scams Targeting Residents:

1. Group Text Job Offers: Fraudsters posing as recruiters on WhatsApp, promising high wages for remote work.
   • Solution: Block/delete contacts and report to providers and CAFC.
2. Fake Enbridge Gas Notices: Impersonation via letters, emails, or door-to-door visits seeking personal/financial data.
   • Solution: Verify contact numbers and report suspicious activity.
3. CBSA Impersonation: Scammers posing as officials demanding payments or personal information.
   • Solution: Hang up and report incidents.
4. Amazon Refund Phishing: Fake refund notifications via text with suspicious links.
   • Solution: Avoid clicking links and verify orders through Amazon account.

Cyber Fraud Impact

• Cyber-enabled fraud accounted for 75% of financial losses in 2024.
• Residents are urged to report scams to local police or CAFC.

TSMC vs. Nvidia: Long-Term Outlook

• TSMC is projected to be more valuable than Nvidia in 10 years due to its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing and pricing power.
• TSMC supplies chips to Nvidia and other major tech companies, benefiting from broader demand across industries.

AI Data Center Growth: Pause or Bust?

• Concerns about an AI data center "bust" are overstated, with Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon planning $300B in capex this year for AI infrastructure.
• Strategic reallocation of capital expenditure (CAPEX) due to emerging Chinese competition, supply chain tariffs, and infrastructure challenges is causing a temporary pause, not a collapse.
• Long-term growth remains positive, with data centers growing at 20%-25% annually over 5-7 years.

Key Challenges:

• Power, fiber, water, and land scarcity are constraining expansion.
• New data centers require significant power (e.g., 500 MW+) and face interconnection delays.