Check out BullDigest's May 6 Post-Market Summary of Rivian Automotive, Inc.. We provide a summary of the key news from market opening hours.
Lowered delivery forecast due to tariffs and economic uncertainty.
Anticipates $2.5B in tariff-related costs for 2025.
Anticipates $5B in tariff-related costs for 2025.
Provided $1B in funding to Rivian through a joint venture, finalized by June 30, 2025.
Noted Rivian's strong position amid tariffs and the R2 product cycle but expects only slight stock price appreciation.
Cancelled a planned 2027 electric Ram HD truck, leading to a $25 million lawsuit from supplier Valeo North America against American Axle.
Filed a $25 million lawsuit against American Axle due to Stellantis cancelling the electric Ram HD truck project.
Defendant in a $25 million lawsuit filed by Valeo North America over the cancellation of the electric Ram HD truck project.
Facing demand issues with 10,000 unsold Cybertrucks, representing over a quarter's worth of production.
Postponed its hypercasting plant due to weakening EV demand and US tariffs, focusing instead on domestic production in the US.
# Rivian's Earnings & Outlook (May 6, 2025)
## Market Overview
- **Delivery Guidance Cut**: Rivian reduced its 2025 delivery forecast to **40,000-46,000 EVs**, down from a previous target of **46,000-51,000 vehicles**, due to tariffs and economic uncertainty.
- **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs are expected to increase vehicle costs by several thousand dollars. Competitors Ford and GM anticipate significant tariff-related costs: Ford expects $2.5B, while GM expects $5B for 2025.
## Company Performance
### Financial Highlights:
- **Q1 2025**:
- Gross profit: $206 million on **8,640 deliveries**, marking the second consecutive profitable quarter.
- Net loss: $541 million, an improvement from a $1.4 billion loss YoY.
- Automotive revenue: $922 million (down 18% YoY).
- Total revenue: Slightly increased due to **$318 million** in software/services revenue (nearly fourfold increase YoY).
- **Funding**: Rivian secured $1B in funding from Volkswagen Group, with the JV expected to finalize by June 30, 2025.
- **EBITDA Outlook**: Adjusted EBITDA loss remains at **$1.7-$1.9B**, with expectations of "modest" positive gross profit for FY 2025.
### Product & Strategy:
- **R2 SUV**: Design validation builds are underway, with the R2 general assembly line on track for a **2026 launch** in Normal, IL.
- **Supplier Park Investment**: Rivian invested **$120 million** in a new supplier park near its Normal, IL plant, supported by $16M in state incentives.
## Competitive Dynamics
- **Stellantis & Electric Ram HD Truck**: Stellantis canceled the 2027 electric Ram HD truck, resulting in a **$25 million lawsuit** from supplier Valeo North America against American Axle.
- **Tesla Cybertruck Inventory**: Tesla faces demand issues with **10,000 unsold Cybertrucks**, representing over a quarter's production.
- **Hyundai Hypercasting Delay**: Hyundai postponed its hypercasting plant due to weakening EV demand and US tariffs, shifting focus to domestic production in the U.S.
## Analyst Opinions
- **Deutsche Bank**: Highlighted Rivian's strong position amid tariffs and the R2 product cycle but noted expectations of only slight stock price appreciation.
- **Stock Price Projection**: 24/7 Wall St projects a potential price target of **$11.88** within 12 months.
## Strategic Considerations
- **Supply Chain Resilience**: Rivian's investment in the supplier park underscores efforts to mitigate supply chain risks and reduce costs.
- **Regulatory Impact**: Tariffs remain a critical factor influencing both production costs and strategic decisions across the EV industry.